Analyst predicts iPhone family by 2009, Mac Tablets in 3-5 years





Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster didn’t get to list Apple under “areas of expertise” on his CV by not knowing a fair bit about the Cupertino company, and the smiling soothsayer has been addressing fifteen key Apple-related questions this week in a report to his flock of investors.  Covering all aspects of Apple’s retail, Mac, Apple TV and, of course, iPhone business, Munster describes his predictions for a family of 2-3 Apple cellphones, why lower price points are an inevitability, and how he expects the company to move to being carrier agnostic.  His suggestion of 2-3 new iPhones that diversify the range isn’t a new one, but he has decided that China will get the handset in 2009.

“We continue to expect Apple to offer a family of iPhones (2-3 separate models) in the first half of 2009, including lower priced ($200-$300) models. Just as the company slowly diversified the iPod lineup and entered lower price points with every new version of the iPod, we expect Apple to launch new models of the iPhone at lower price points in CY09. This expectation, along with the expectation for lower price points, and world wide availability of the phone, is critical to our CY09 iPhone estimate of 45m units” Gene Munster, analyst, Piper Jaffray

“[W]e believe Apple is not hesitant to try business models other than the exclusive models the company has chosen during the iPhone’s first year. It has enabled Apple to maintain tight control on the user experience of the iPhone, but expanded availability will likely become a higher priority, and we believe it will eventually drive Apple to offer the iPhone on multiple carriers in each country” Gene Munster

Munster also addresses Apple’s introduction of the App Store, describing it as a recognition that the iPhone user base was “dissatisfied with the simplified Web 2.0 apps available on the iPhone’s web browser.”  He describes the developing iPhone and iPod ranges as a sign that Apple is looking to “transform the MP3 market into a portable computing market” and that the iPod touch is the first of many WiFi-enabled, internet-friendly PMPs.  For anybody hoping for an Apple Tablet, Gene suggests it may take a few years, but will come as an evolution of the MacBook’s MultiTouch trackpad (which itself will evolve to an embedded color touchscreen):

“Eventually, we expect Apple to change the trackpad to backlit color screens for a more dynamic user interface on the Mac. And ultimately, we expect Apple to develop a full touch-screen MacBook, although not until the technology has fully matured over the next 3-5 years” Gene Munster

Nothing especially new on the iPhone, overall, but the omission of the 3G iPhone from any of Munster’s answers is a curious one.  You can read the full list of questions and answers at Apple Insider.

[via iPhone Investigator - thanks Michelle!]

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One Response to “Analyst predicts iPhone family by 2009, Mac Tablets in 3-5 years”

  1. Jeff says:

    not all web based applications are “simplistic”. My office’s collaboration solution hyperoffice works pretty well with iPhone. its ironical how the press is pushing for web applications on desktops, and for the exact opposite on mobile devices. are we all whiners?


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